Open letter: Alberta’s future is stronger in Canada

Open letter to Albertans on the October 19, 2026, referendum question on Alberta separating from Canada

Dear Albertans,

On October 19, each of you will make a critically important choice about our province’s future: whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada or whether the Government of Alberta should begin the legal process to hold a binding referendum on separation. 

Alberta is Canada’s third largest economic engine. Generations of workers, entrepreneurs, innovators and businesses have built an economy and society defined by ambition, resilience and community. 

Many Albertans are also frustrated with our place in Confederation and feel our province has not always received appropriate recognition for its contribution to Canada’s prosperity. Those frustrations are real. 

But the solution to these grievances is not separation. 

Alberta’s success has not been built in isolation. It depends on our connections to the rest of Canada and the world – access to customers and suppliers, integrated infrastructure, labour mobility, investment capital and economic stability.

Nearly one in three Albertan workers – roughly 900,000 people – works in industries significantly exposed to trade. Of that 900,000, approximately 334,000 jobs are tied directly or indirectly to exports to other provinces, with more than 450,000 tied to international exports. Interprovincial exports alone generate approximately $78 billion in income – about 16 cents of every dollar earned in Alberta.

Those connections are not easily replaced, and a new international border would inevitably change them.

Research by economist Trevor Tombe, commissioned by the Calgary Chamber, illustrates what is at stake. If separation increased the cost of trading with Canada and the world by eight per cent – within the range observed following Brexit – Alberta’s real GDP per capita could fall by approximately six per cent, the workforce could shrink by roughly 175,000 people and the provincial economy could be $62 billion smaller each year. 

Separation could also make it more challenging for Alberta to attract the labour needed to advance investment and capital projects. With 49 per cent of Albertans born outside the province or country, people moving to Alberta have been an important source of labour and tax revenue, bringing with them education funded by taxpayers in other jurisdictions, to the tune of $120 billion – one quarter of Alberta’s GDP.

Furthermore, separation would not produce a fiscal windfall. In 2024, the federal government collected approximately $19 billion more in Alberta than it spent here. But an independent Alberta would also assume responsibility for federally delivered services, lose some economies of scale and likely operate with a smaller tax base. Tombe suggests the apparent surplus would instead become a fiscal shortfall of approximately $9 billion, requiring higher taxes, lower spending or both. The Alberta advantage would disappear and the cost of government borrowing would go up. 

This conclusion is reinforced by the Government of Alberta’s own independent analysis, which estimates that establishing an independent country could cost between $50 billion and $170 billion in the first five years alone.

No economic model can predict precisely how separation would unfold. But the evidence consistently points to significant new costs, risks and consequences. Tombe estimates a five to eight per cent increase in trade costs could shrink Alberta’s economy by $41 to $62 billion each year, while uncertainty comparable to that experience following Brexit could mean another $10 to $15 billion in forgone annual investment.

Yet there are reasons for optimism about what Alberta can accomplish within Canada. The Canada–Alberta MOU signed in November 2025, and subsequent implementation agreements, demonstrate what can happen when governments focus on shared economic interests. Canada and Alberta are now working together to expand market access, advance a new west coast oil pipeline, removing barriers to expanded electricity trade between Alberta and its neighbours, increase energy production and create greater certainty for investment. 

Alberta has the resources, expertise and entrepreneurial capacity to play an increasingly important role in Canada’s economic future. We must seize that opportunity – not just for today, but for the benefit of future generations of Albertans.

The economic consequences of a separation debate are felt well before any constitutional change occurs. Markets price risk and businesses respond to uncertainty in advance – by delaying investment or leaving altogether. Alberta is particularly exposed: foreign multinationals have invested $152 billion in the province over the past decade and account for nearly 300,000 jobs each year.

Quebec’s experience offers a warning. During its sovereignty debates, businesses, investors and workers responded to political uncertainty well before either referendum. In 1977 and 1978, 263 companies moved their headquarters out of Montreal while only 21 moved in. Between 1976 and 1981, Quebec also experienced a net loss of approximately 135,000 people to other provinces. Alberta would not necessarily follow the same path, but the lesson is important: prolonged uncertainty itself can carry economic consequences.

Alberta remains important to Canada. Our advantages – and relevance to this moment of building Canada and advancing our security – are heeded by the country now more than ever. 

We must remain at the table, and prioritize relationships, opportunities and stability that have helped make this province and this country prosperous. Alberta can be proud of Its identity while remaining confident in its future within Canada.

On October 19, Albertans will make an important choice about our province’s future. We believe Alberta’s strongest path is one that builds on our advantages, expands our opportunities and allows Alberta to continue leading as part of Canada.

About the Calgary Chamber of Commerce 

The Calgary Chamber exists to empower our business community to advance a prosperous Calgary and Canada. As the convenor and catalyst for a vibrant, inclusive and prosperous business community, the Chamber works to build strength and resilience among its members and position Calgary as a magnet for talent, diversification and opportunity. As an independent, non-profit, non-partisan organization founded in 1891, we build on our history to serve and advocate for businesses of all sizes, in all sectors across the city.