For highlights of the research results, click here.
For a detailed analysis of the results, click here.
Calgary, AB, June 24, 2026 – According to a new survey conducted in partnership with Probe Research, nearly half of Calgary Chamber member respondents say they are prepared to leave Alberta and relocate their business to another province if Albertans vote to begin the formal process towards separation from Canada. Only 39 per cent indicate they are unlikely to do so.
The results point to growing concerns within Calgary’s business community about the economic uncertainty and disruption associated with a potential separation process, with 91 per cent of member respondents reporting that they are following the referendum discussion closely. The findings also show that 63 per cent of respondents report separatism is already having a negative impact on their business, while 74 per cent see no tangible benefit to Alberta separating from Canada.
“Our business community is sending a clear message — separation has moved beyond a theoretical debate to having tangible effects on business confidence and decision-making,” says Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “This discussion is not only about the movement of capital to other jurisdictions viewed as more predictable and stable, but also about how the movement of businesses, jobs and labour would permanently damage our economy. If a formal referendum process moves forward, the very foundations that have made Alberta one of Canada’s strongest economies – including a predictable, business-friendly environment – will be in jeopardy.”
These findings are reinforced by analysis commissioned by the Calgary Chamber and conducted by Trevor Tombe, Professor of Economics at the University of Calgary. The analysis finds that approximately one in three Albertan workers are exposed to disruptions in trade with the rest of Canada and international markets, and roughly 16 cents of every dollar earned in the province is tied to those exports to the rest of Canada alone – amounting to $78 billion in 2025.
The analysis further projects that an eight per cent increase in interprovincial and international trade costs following separation — based on observed effects from Brexit in the United Kingdom — would reduce Alberta’s GDP per capita by approximately six per cent, reduce employment by roughly 175,000 jobs and contract the economy by an estimated $62 billion annually. It also estimates that an investment decline driven by uncertainty on a scale comparable to that seen after Brexit could result in $10 to $15 billion in foregone investment in 2026, or up to $3,000 per Albertan.
“The success of Alberta’s economy relies on more than a century of trade ties with other provinces and key trading partners, supported by agreements, infrastructure and regulatory continuity,” adds Yedlin.“Now more than ever, our economy needs stability amid rising uncertainty and geopolitical disruptions that businesses have no control over. We must focus on what we can control here at home to provide businesses the confidence to stay in Alberta, and that includes a firm opposition to separation.”
Quick Facts
Member polling by Probe Research, commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce (survey conducted June 2026)
- 48 per cent of Calgary Chamber member respondents are very or somewhat likely to leave the province and relocate their business if Alberta votes to begin the separation process. 39 per cent are unlikely to relocate and 13 per cent are unsure.
- 91 per cent of member respondents are closely following the public discussion around the referendum.
- 74 per cent of member respondents see no tangible benefits in Alberta separating from Canada.
- 80 per cent of member respondents think the discussion around separatism is negatively affecting Alberta’s economy, and 63 per cent report that the discussion is having a negative effect on their business.
- 19 per cent of member respondents report slowing business expansion plans within Alberta and 15 per cent are actively looking at relocating to other provinces.
Economic impact assessment by Trevor Tombe, commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce
- About one in three Alberta workers (around 900,000) are significantly exposed to disruptions to trade with Canada and the rest of the world.
- Interprovincial exports account for about 16 per cent of total provincial income, amounting to $78 billion in income to Alberta workers and businesses in 2025, while international exports account for another 39 per cent, or approximately $390 billion.
- Based on the measured effect of Brexit for the United Kingdom, an eight per cent increase in both interprovincial and international trade costs from separation would lower GDP per capita in Alberta by about six per cent, reduce the workforce by roughly 175,000 and shrink the economy by $62 billion a year.
- A decline of investment from uncertainty on the scale seen after Brexit would mean $10 to $15 billion in foregone investment in 2026 — as much as $3,000 per Albertan.
– 30 –
About the Calgary Chamber of Commerce
The Calgary Chamber exists to empower our business community to advance a prosperous Calgary and Canada. As the convenor and catalyst for a vibrant, inclusive and prosperous business community, the Chamber works to build strength and resilience among its members and position Calgary as a magnet for talent, diversification and opportunity. As an independent, non-profit, non-partisan organization founded in 1891, we build on our history to serve and advocate for businesses of all sizes, in all sectors across the city.
Media opportunities
For media inquiries, please contact: media@calgarychamber.com
Survey methodology
Probe Research conducted an online survey of 137 Chamber members from June 8 to 22, 2026. All members were sent an email with a secure link to the survey, with multiple reminders sent to those who had yet to complete it. Respondents were broadly representative of the membership in terms of company size, and no weighting was applied to the results. As an online survey is a sample of convenience, no margin of error can be ascribed. However, a random and representative sample of 137 members would have a margin of error of ± 8.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
