For businesses, the question of Alberta separation is not an abstract constitutional debate. It is increasingly a question about whether to invest and hire, with whom to do business and how to manage the attendant risks.
In conversations with Calgary Chamber members, we are hearing businesses are beginning to think through what a separation process could mean for their operations – well before any final decision on Alberta’s constitutional future. This mirrors the response in Quebec in advance of the referenda held in 1980 and 1995. Some have told us they are becoming more cautious about expanding into other Canadian provinces, because of the uncertainty around what future trade or regulatory arrangements could look like. Others are considering whether investment, hiring or expansion decisions should proceed while fundamental questions about Alberta’s economic relationship with Canada remain unresolved.
Those conversations reinforce what we heard through our June member survey, where 80 per cent of respondents said the separation discussion is negatively affecting Alberta’s economy and 63 per cent said it is negatively affecting their own organization. Nearly one in five reported slowing expansion plans in Alberta and 15 per cent were already exploring relocation to another province. If Alberta votes to begin a formal separation process, 48 per cent said they would be somewhat or very likely to relocate their business.
Talent and investment depend on confidence
Alberta businesses already compete nationally and internationally for specialized workers. Some members are concerned that a prolonged separation process could cause some workers to leave the province while making prospective employees more hesitant to move here. Businesses are also asking what changes to immigration, professional credentials, pensions or labour mobility could mean for their workforce.
The same calculation applies to capital. Investors compare jurisdictions based on stability, predictability and risk. Uncertainty compromises investment. Members are concerned that uncertainty over Alberta’s future regulatory, fiscal and trade arrangements could make projects more difficult to finance or cause investment decisions to be delayed.
These concerns are not theoretical. Chamber-commissioned economic analysis by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimates that uncertainty comparable to that experienced following Brexit could result in $10 billion to $15 billion in foregone Alberta investment in 2026 alone.
Businesses depend on connections beyond Alberta
Alberta businesses operate through, and rely on, supply chains, customers and infrastructure that cross provincial and international borders every day. Approximately 900,000 Alberta workers – about one in three – are employed in sectors significantly exposed to disruptions in interprovincial or international trade. Interprovincial exports alone support approximately 330,000 Alberta jobs and generated $78 billion in provincial income in 2025.
For members, that raises practical questions. Would Alberta businesses continue to have the same access to Canadian customers? Would goods moving through British Columbia or other provinces face new costs or requirements? What would happen to federal regulations, approvals and trade agreements? These questions are particularly consequential for the many Chamber members that operate under federal regulatory frameworks. Whatever the shortcomings of those frameworks, transitioning to new regulatory systems could create significant uncertainty, cost and disruption. And how would Alberta ensure continued access to the transportation corridors and infrastructure required to move energy, agricultural products and other exports to global markets?
No one can know precisely what arrangements would ultimately be negotiated. That uncertainty is itself part of the concern.
Tombe’s modelling illustrates the scale of the exposure: an eight per cent increase in interprovincial and international trade costs – comparable to the measured effect of Brexit – could reduce Alberta’s GDP per capita by approximately six per cent, shrink the provincial economy by an estimated $62 billion annually and reduce employment by roughly 175,000 workers.
Independence would also require replacing institutions
Businesses are also thinking about a more basic issue; separation would require Alberta to assume responsibilities currently carried out by the Government of Canada.
An independent country requires institutions and systems to administer borders, taxation, immigration, aviation, trade relations, regulation and other public services. It could also affect the province’s cost of borrowing as markets assess the fiscal implications of establishing new institutions and services. Whatever model Alberta ultimately choses, establishing and operating those functions would carry costs. Businesses are concerned those costs could ultimately translate into additional government borrowing, higher taxes or fees, and fewer resources available for other provincial priorities.
The broader concern we hear from members is therefore less about any single policy question, and more about the accumulation of uncertainty across many of them. Businesses can adapt to different tax rates, regulations and market conditions when the rules are known. It is much harder to plan when the future rules governing labour, investment, trade, regulation and market access have yet to be negotiated.
That is what many Calgary businesses are weighing today – not simply what an independent Alberta might eventually look like, but what years of uncertainty getting there could mean for decisions they have to make now.
About the Calgary Chamber of Commerce
The Calgary Chamber exists to empower our business community to advance a prosperous Calgary and Canada. As the convenor and catalyst for a vibrant, inclusive and prosperous business community, the Chamber works to build strength and resilience among our members and position Calgary as a magnet for talent, diversification and opportunity. As an independent, non-profit, non-partisan organization founded in 1891, we build on our history to serve and advocate for businesses of all sizes, in all sectors across the city.
